Sunday, December 21, 2008
Poona's winter musings
Monday, December 8, 2008
A rebuttal to Gnani Sankaran's article
Gnani Sankaran- Tamil writer, Chennai.
Watching at least four English news channels surfing from one another during the last 60 hours of terror strike made me feel a terror of another kind. The terror of assaulting one's mind and sensitivity with cameras, sound bites and non-stop blabbers. All these channels have been trying to manufacture my consent for a big lie called - Hotel Taj the icon of India.
Whose India, Whose Icon ?
It is a matter of great shame that these channels simply did not bother about the other icon that faced the first attack from terrorists - the Chatrapathi Shivaji Terminus (CST) railway station. CST is the true icon of Mumbai. It is through this railway station hundreds of Indians from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Tamilnadu have poured into Mumbai over the years, transforming themselves into Mumbaikars and built the Mumbai of today along with the Marathis and Kolis
But the channels would not recognise this. Nor would they recognise the thirty odd dead bodies strewn all over the platform of CST. No Barkha dutt went there to tell us who they were. But she was at Taj to show us the damaged furniture and reception lobby braving the guards. And the TV cameras did not go to the government run JJ hospital to find out who those 26 unidentified bodies were. Instead they were again invading the battered Taj to try in vain for a scoop shot of the dead bodies of the page 3 celebrities.
In all probability, the unidentified bodies could be those of workers from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh migrating to Mumbai, arriving by train at CST without cell phones and pan cards to identify them. Even after 60 hours after the CST massacre, no channel has bothered to cover in detail what transpired there.
The channels conveniently failed to acknowledge that the Aam Aadmis of India surviving in Mumbai were not affected by Taj, Oberoi and Trident closing down for a couple of weeks or months. What mattered to them was the stoppage of BEST buses and suburban trains even for one hour. But the channels were not covering that aspect of the terror attack. Such information at best merited a scroll line, while the cameras have to be dedicated for real time thriller unfolding at Taj or Nariman bhavan.
The so called justification for the hype the channels built around heritage site Taj falling down (CST is also a heritage site), is that Hotel Taj is where the rich and the powerful of India and the globe congregate. It is a symbol or icon of power of money and politics, not India. It is the icon of the financiers and swindlers of India. The Mumbai and India were built by the Aam Aadmis who passed through CST and Taj was the oasis of peace and privacy for those who wielded power over these mass of labouring classes. Leopold club and Taj were the haunts of rich spoilt kids who would drive their vehicles over sleeping Aam Aadmis on the pavement, the Mafiosi of Mumbai forever financing the glitterati of Bollywood (and also the terrorists) , Political brokers and industrialists.
It is precisely because Taj is the icon of power and not people, that the terrorists chose to strike.
The terrorists have understood after several efforts that the Aam Aadmi will never break down even if you bomb her markets and trains. He/she was resilient because that is the only way he/she can even survive.
Resilience was another word that annoyed the pundits of news channels and their patrons this time. What resilience, enough is enough, said Pranoy Roy's channel on the left side of the channel spectrum. Same sentiments were echoed by Arnab Goswami representing the right wing of the broadcast media whose time is now. Can Rajdeep be far behind in this game of one upmanship over TRPs ? They all attacked resilience this time. They wanted firm action from the government in tackling terror.
The same channels celebrated resilience when bombs went off in trains and markets killing and maiming the Aam Aadmis. The resilience of the ordinary worker suited the rich business class of Mumbai since work or manufacture or film shooting did not stop. When it came to them, the rich shamelessly exhibited their lack of nerves and refused to be resilient themselves. They cry for government intervention now to protect their private spas and swimming pools and bars and restaurants, similar to the way in which Citibank, General Motors and the ilk cry for government money when their coffers are emptied by their own ideologies.
The terrorists have learnt that the ordinary Indian is unperturbed by terror. For one whose daily existence itself is a terror of government sponsored inflation and market sponsored exclusion, pain is something he has learnt to live with. The rich of Mumbai and India Inc are facing the pain for the first time and learning about it just as the middle classes of India learnt about violation of human rights only during emergency, a cool 28 years after independence.
And human rights were another favourite issue for the channels to whip at times of terrorism.
Arnab Goswami in an animated voice wondered where were those champions of human rights now, not to be seen applauding the brave and selfless police officers who gave up their life in fighting terorism. Well, the counter question would be where were you when such officers were violating the human rights of Aam Aadmis. Has there ever been any 24 hour non stop coverage of violence against dalits and adivasis of this country?
This definitely was not the time to manufacture consent for the extra legal and third degree methods of interrogation of police and army but Arnabs don't miss a single opportunity to serve their class masters, this time the jingoistic patriotism came in handy to whitewash the entire uniformed services.
The sacrifice of the commandos or the police officers who went down dying at the hands of ruthless terrorists is no doubt heart rending but in vain in a situation which needed not just bran but also brain. Israel has a point when it says the operations were misplanned resulting in the death of its nationals here.
Khakares and Salaskars would not be dead if they did not commit the mistake of traveling by the same vehicle. It is a basic lesson in management that the top brass should never t ravel together in crisis. The terrorists, if only they had watched the channels, would have laughed their hearts out when the Chief of the Marine commandos, an elite force, masking his face so unprofessionally in a see-through cloth, told the media that the commandos had no idea about the structure of the Hotel Taj which they were trying to liberate. But the terrorists knew the place thoroughly, he acknowledged.
Is it so difficult to obtain a ground plan of Hotel Taj and discuss operation strategy thoroughly for at least one hour before entering? This is something even an event manager would first ask for, if he had to fix 25 audio systems and 50 CCtvs for a cultural event in a hotel. Would not Ratan Tata have provided a plan of his ancestral hotel to the commandos within one hour considering the mighty apparatus at his and government's disposal? Are satelite pictures only available for terrorists and not the government agencies ? In an operation known to consume time, one more hour for preparation would have only improved the efficiency of execution.
Sacrifices become doubly tragic in unprofessional circumstances. But the Aam Aadmis always believe that terror-shooters do better planning than terrorists. And the gullible media in a jingoistic mood would not raise any question about any of these issues.
They after all have their favourite whipping boy - the politician the eternal entertainer for the non-voting rich classes of India.
Arnabs and Rajdeeps would wax eloquent on Nanmohan Singh and Advani visiting Mumbai separately and not together showing solidarity even at this hour of national crisis. What a farce? Why can't these channels pool together all their camera crew and reporters at this time of national calamity and share the sound and visual bites which could mean a wider and deeper coverage of events with such a huge human resource to command? Why should Arnab and Rajdeep and Barkha keep harping every five minutes that this piece of information was exclusive to their channel, at the time of such a national crisis? Is this the time to promote the channel? If that is valid, the politician promoting his own political constituency is equally valid. And the duty of the politican is to do politics, his politics. It is for the people to evaluate that politics.
And terrorism is not above politics. It is politics by other means.
To come to grips with it and to eventually eliminate it, the practice of politics by proper means needs constant fine tuning and improvement. Decrying all politics and politicians, only helps terrorists and dictators who are the two sides of the same coin. And the rich and powerful always prefer terrorists and dictators to do business with.
Those caught in this crossfire are always the Aam Aadmis whose deaths are not even mourned - the taxi driver who lost the entire family at CST firing, the numerous waiters and stewards who lost their lives working in Taj for a monthly salary that would be one time bill for their masters.
Postscript: In a fit of anger and depression, I sent a message to all the channels, 30 hours through the coverage. After all they have been constantly asking the viewers to message them for anything and everything. My message read: I send this with lots of pain. All channels, including yours, must apologise for not covering the victims of CST massacre, the real mumbaikars and aam aadmis of India. Your obsession with five star elite is disgusting. Learn from the print media please. No channel bothered. Only srinivasan Jain replied: you are right. We are trying to redress balance today. Well, nothing happened till the time of writing this 66 hours after the terror attack.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Do candlelight vigils work?
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Shatabdi Express In Ruins
Monday, December 1, 2008
Heads roll or cosmetic measures?
Friday, November 28, 2008
After-thoughts of the Bombay terror attack
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Will Indian Politicans Wake Up?
As the war on
They talk. They condemn the acts. Oppositions blame the present governments and demand resignations while governments tells us that the law will take its own course. What else? They talk about India Shining. They talk about
They talk about reservations in prestigious educational institutions and at every place where merit should be given due considerations. They talk about threatening to burn
They are not concerned about people's security although they would have us believe otherwise. They are worried about their own security. Even after they order their cadres to run riots, they crave for 'Z'-Plus security. They crave for exemptions from all sorts of procedure, not only for them but also for their uncles, aunties, relatives, sons & daughters, and cronies. So much money is wasted on their security. They protest and agitate. They talk loudly. They make a lot of noise and create nuisance. Infact, they ARE the nuisance.
And if all the above is not enough, when it comes to the Pay commission and ensuring that the armed forces and our police are well looked after, they shudder and not give due respect to them. This is biggest irony of nine per cent growth.
Professional terrorism
The way these terrorists have carried out their operation have done very professionally. A large group of youngsters armed with grenades, AK-47 and such artillery, that were brain-washed by their egg-headed terrorist masters in Islamic countries landed on Bombay shores in south Bombay right in the middle of a highly-densed fishermen village near Cuffe Parade. Then, they systematically dispersed in groups, reached thir targets at Cafe Leopold, Taj and Oberoi hotels. Such was their planning that after the group or bunch of terrorists did their killings at Victoria Station railway station, they allegedly went pass by Cama & Albless hospital (a women and children hospital), terrorised it and then moved towards Metro cinema and carried out random firing there, as per the numerous TV reports. Then, they also had the audacity to highjack a police van in front of everywhere and tried to escape. In the interim, they continued their shootings and also shot at the video-grapher of Times Now TV channel who was filming them.
Meanwhile, it’s been 24 hours and such is the level of planning of these terrorists that the hostage crisis is still on! Reports around 21.30 hrs (27 Nov) say the death toll to 125. Around 1,000 have been reportedly been injured. No less than the military had to be called to deal with them; the
We lost our brave soldiers. The Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) chief Hemant Karkare was shot dead, alongwith two of his closest aides, Additional Commissioner of Police Ashok Kamte and encounter specialist Vijay Salaskar in retaliatory firing incident near
Half-prepared
The unfortunate truth is that our administration was not even half as prepared as the terrorists were, to tackle this situation. When the police couldn't’t much, eventually the NSG had to be brought in.
Despite 24 hours passing by, we still haven’t been able to get things in control. Why isn’t our police capable of handling such situations and why was the NSG brought it? We have clearly not lessons from the past. Not only
It seems that not much money is spent on upgrading the policing infrastructure. Even the pay commission hasn’t spent as much as it should have to the armed forces. The civil government employees get handsome hikes, but not enough is done for our armed forces. The nation clearly does not respect valor and bravery. Look at state of police housing headquarters in
Not enough money is spent on improving our paramedics. Air ambulances are still many years away, and the injured are shifted to hospitals by road meandering the ever-increasing traffic! Lives are lost on the way to hospitals struggling through traffic. Look at the way the injured are excavated and taken on stretchers in a clumsy and chaotic fashion. Still, you have to give it for the spirit of
The police force is not given enough freedom to act. The unfortunate truth is that they have to report to our Home ministers and defense ministers who themselves are not ex-army men unlike their counterparts in the western countries, and the government. If these people are not from armed forces or have not served the professional Indian army in their lifetime, how would they understand their plight? How could they do justice to them?
Also, is enough being done to train our police force and also look after them? The
Our governments are useless and legal system is inadequate to deal with terrorism. Neither have the governments been able to detect such activities in advance and prevent them, but they are also unable to counter them and bring people to justice. Repeated governments after governments have been unable to counter terrorism. When will our politicians wake up?
Bombay under attack: hauled up at Sterling cinema
Thursday, November 20, 2008
RELIGARE AEGON MF ACQUIRES LOTUS MF
After suffering their worst month ever, the Indian MF industry sees consolidation. Is this just a start?
However, sources say, its sponsor Alexandra Fund Management - a subsidiary of Singapore’s Temasek Holdings, was keen to exit Lotus on account of the mayhem caused due to the global credit crisis and also the state of Lotus MF. Sabre Capital was the other partner in this joint venture.
In reality, the MF has been jinxed right from its start. Even before it launched its first equity scheme, its ex-star fund manager Sandip Sabharwal was shown the door when news reports of his alleged involvement in the Ketan Parikh stock market scam, when he was a fund manager at SBI MF earlier, surfaced. Soon, another of its star manager – this time its ex-head of debt funds – Nandkumar Surti also quit. There was much heartburn amongst the disgruntled staff and loyalists of these two fund managers soon followed their way out.
The MF never recovered from its initial debacle. And though Tridib Pathak eventually came on board as Sabharwal’s replacement, he couldn’t recreate the magic. None of its schemes have yet turned three years yet but their performances till date has been sober. Meanwhile Sabharwal has since joined JM Financial MF and was a key factor in resurrecting the MF!
New equations
What has surprised the industry is the quickness in which this deal was struck. And although Religare Aegon did not comment on the price of the deal, news reports estimate about two per cent of Lotus’s AUM. As per the MF’s October-end corpus of Rs 5,458 crore, the deal works out to be approximately Rs 109 crore, considered to be the cheapest MF deal in recent times, especially in the wake of the recent acquisition of the erstwhile Standard Chartered MF by IDFC for a price of Rs 825 crore. Further, market sources also add that this deal has a clause wherein the Lotus’s sponsor would make good the loss (sources claim it to be around Rs 100 crore), if any, that arises from any possible defaults of any of Lotus’ underlying instruments. This further sweetens the deal for Religare Aegon.
Another reason why the deal is rumoured to be so cheap is Lotus’ huge debt assets as compared to equities. The MF has yet not disclosed its complete October-end portfolio, but as per its September-end portfolio, only seven percent of its total AUM was in equities, the rest in debt and more than half of its AUM was in FMPs. Further, 32.55 per cent of its AUM was in liquid and liquid-plus schemes. Not only are Debt, especially FMP, schemes earn much lesser income than equities, liquid schemes also see very short-term investors and no sticky money. That apart, Lotus Asset Management Company has been incurring losses; Rs 21.95 crore loss after tax as on 31 March 2008 and Rs 32.26 crore loss after tax as on 31 March 2007.
For Religare Aegon though, it seems to be a decent catch. Even before the MF has launched its first scheme (it got Sebi approval in September and has filed draft offer documents of a total of five schemes with Sebi for approval), Religare Aegon gets an instant access to 64 cities where Lotus MF already has a sales presence and its branches across 38 cities. Religare Aegon has also acquired Lotus’s fund management team but it remains to be seen how many of the team comes on board.
This latest acquisition may not be a one-off case. Atleast three other MFs are rumoured to be put up on sale soon. One of these MFs, say market sources, is a new entrant that has already cut salaries of its employees across board by around 30 per cent!
Monday, November 17, 2008
PR companies can be a nuisance
- Do not ask stupid questions. Of course journalists are working on stories since we are employed. We have to be, God-forbid, unemployed to be not doing any stories.
- Also, avoid asking "Which stories are you working on?" No self-respecting journalist would want to share with you their story ideas. Ask in a way to offer liaison services rather than straightaway asking the topic of our story. You may not mean to leak our story ideas to our rivals, but it is still idiotic to ask on what we are working on.
- Understand from our point of view. If 5 PR people call us per day and ask us about our story, it could become very irritating.
- Maintain a database on who (journalist) working where (name of the media firm) tracks what (beat, sectors, companies). Official email id, contact number and designation should be maintained.
- Ensure this database is available to all in the PR firm and shared by all. It is my gut-feel that newcomers in some PR firms could be goaded by their seniors to call up all journalists and build a database. This should be avoided, as all existing PR firms are expected to already have such an existing database ready for use.
- Send relevant emails only. Avoid sending spam emails
- Regularly and actively track magazines and newspapers to record any change in mastheads
- Seniors in PR firms must guide their juniors and make them aware of which journalist tracks what and what not, so that juniors are given an idea.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Sipping chai at Tea centre
Thursday, November 13, 2008
...of politics and local sentiment
HOW SAFE ARE YOUR LIQUID FUNDS?
If you think that liquid funds are absolutely safe and protect your capital at all times, then think again. On 8 October, three liquid plus funds, Mirae Asset Liquid Plus (MALP), DSP Merrill Lynch Liquid Plus and Templeton India Ultra Short Bond funds gave one-day negative returns. MALP was the worst hit as it lost 0.40 per cent that day. While a day’s loss may not sound catastrophic in any other funds, in the case of liquid funds it grabs headlines because many large investors and companies park their surplus cash in these funds for a day or a week or a fortnight. To make matters worse, some schemes limited redemptions. On 15 October, ABN Amro MF limited redemptions on few of its fixed maturity plans (FMP) to Rs one lakh per folio. What went wrong?
Bad assets…
After a series of media reports about the illiquidity of the underlying assets in which many liquid, liquid-plus and especially fixed maturity plans (FMP) had invested in and their questionable credit quality, large investors who were already facing tough times and a cash crunch began withdrawing money from these schemes. Soaring short-term bank fixed deposit (FD) rates did not help MFs, as these investors started pulling money out from these schemes and invest in bank FDs.
In this melee, not just the culprit FMPs but even those that had comparatively cleaner portfolios were also affected. As a result, many investors who withdrew from FMPs made a loss on their investments because they did not get the indicative yield they were told – albeit unofficially, as MFs are not allowed to assure returns - as they withdrew much before the scheme’s maturity. MFs arrive at indicative yields based on the assumption that investors will stay till maturity. But such yields go for a toss when MFs have to make a distress sale to generate cash to meet redemptions. Add to them the exit loads that most FMPs impose on pre-mature withdrawals, and investors who got out last month most likely made a loss.
Whilst Outlook Money was amongst the first ones to warn readers of such assets in which many FMPs had invested in (See, ‘Are Fixed Maturity Plans A Ticking Time Bomb’, 10 September 2008), the rot runs much deeper.
In addition to investing in illiquid real-asset papers, many liquid and liquid-plus funds have also invested in instruments called pass-through certificates (PTC). These are essentially loans issued by banks to borrowers that are then bundled off as securities and sold off to buyers such as mutual funds. Assume a bank issues a five-year loan XZY at an interest rate of 10 per cent. Since it would take five years for this bank to recover the loan, it sells off this loan to, say, a mutual fund, at say, seven per cent. The bank would earn the spread (difference in interest rates) of three per cent (10 per cent – seven per cent). The MF would pay the lumpsum to the bank, who in-turn would get back the principal amount (that it had originally lent to XYZ company) upfront; interest payments that XYZ company would keep paying to the bank, in the meantime, would be forwarded (after deducting the spread) to the MF.
PTCs can be quite toxic if the loan originator (XYZ company in the case, above) is a low-rated one. MF sources say that even if the original borrower is a top-rated company, there are no buyers these days in the markets for PTCs that MFs may want to sell, to raise cash to meet redemptions. On account of a slow economic growth and poor result forecasts, there seems to be a perception about the companies’ ability to repay loans. Hence, PTCs are pretty illiquid these days.
As per the September-end portfolio of liquid and liquid-plus, some schemes
Funds, especially liquid-plus funds (liquid-type funds that have a mark-to-market portfolio component of more than 10 per cent; their maturities are therefore higher than liquid funds) with longer maturities got hit too; it’s harder to find buyers for longer-dated securities when liquidity is tight.
…Low liquidity
The problem of the rush on redemptions was compounded by the lack of liquidity in the system on account of several reasons that had resulted in banks also withdrawing their funds from liquid and liquid-plus funds earlier. The rush on redemptions compelled liquid funds to sell their most liquid assets at throw-away prices that resulted in their losses. Fund sources say that although Sebi allows MFs to borrow up to 20 per cent of their corpus from banks to meet redemption pressures, money wasn’t available.
Even fixed maturity plans (FMP) saw a rush on redemptions on the back of news reports of bad assets held by them. Although the October-end corpus figures are yet to be disclosed, market reports suggest that liquid and liquid-plus funds have already seen redemptions of around Rs 50,000 crore in October.
Regulatory help
On 14 October, the reserve bank of India (RBI) allowed MFs to take loans from banks to meet their redemption proceeds by directly pledging their certificate of deposits (CDs; these are one of the short-term and liquid instruments that debt funds invest in) for a period of 15 days. This was a reversal of an earlier RBI stand wherein banks were not allowed to grant loans against CDs and were also not allowed to buy-back their own CDs before maturity.
But this measure seems to have come a little late, because out of Rs 20,000 crore that’s been made available to funds, MFs have utilised only Rs 8,800 crore up till 24 October. “Since the panic redemptions had already landed up on MF’s doorstep before RBI came out with his rule, MFs had already sold most of the CDs by then”, says Ashish Nigam, Head-fixed income, Religare Aegon mutual fund. Later, on 18 October, Sebi eased the guidelines for valuing debt securities too.
What should you do?
Understand that even if liquid funds are less risky than other MF schemes, they still carry risk. No MF is risk-free. Though liquid funds are not volatile to the interest rate scenario because their assets are not marked-to-market (Sebi mandates only instruments more than six months maturity to be marked-to-market; liquid funds hold scrips with a less than six months maturity), they do turn volatile at times. Liquid funds have to mark-to-market their instruments when they sell them and then book a profit or a loss at that time. And if there’s a liquidity crunch or a huge redemption pressure - like the one we’ve seen so far in October – they could be forced to sell instruments at panic prices, resulting in a loss, even if the scrips being sold are of a good quality, like Mirae Liquid Funds’. Despite having a high-quality portfolio (highest credit rating, no PTCs and only CDs), Mirae schemes incurred losses.
MFs also have a clause in their offer documents to initiate stagger payments in case of panic redemptions and thereby its inability to generate enough cash to meet the redemptions. ABN Amro MF merely used this provision in its FMPs at the time of redeeming them.
Look at average maturity
But there are a few things that you could look at, such as the average maturity of your liquid funds. The lower the maturity, the safer is your fund, because scrips of lower maturity are easier to sell and are also less volatile, compared to those with higher maturity. Funds with lower maturities are conservative and give lesser returns than those with higher maturities, but in volatile times, their downside is limited.
Corpus
Stick to larger liquid funds, preferably, with a corpus size of more than Rs 1,000 crore. Although panic redemptions in times like these hit almost all funds, the larger ones are comparatively less hit. Even a few large investors who withdraw from small-sized liquid funds can leave a much bigger impact.
Credit quality
Credit quality. Check out your liquid fund’s credit quality. Monthly portfolios of existing
schemes (if you are investing in liquid and liquid-plus schemes) are available on the MF’s website. Else, tell your broker to get you a monthly factsheet and have him take you through the portfolio’s credit quality if you are unable to decipher these details yourself.
Avoid schemes that have a large holding in assets below a AA or an equivalent credit rating (OLM’s threshold; see table 2) or in PTCs. “The lower your liquid funds’ portfolio quality, the harder it is for them to sell their scrips to fund redemptions”, adds Amit Trivedi, Proprietor, Karmayog Knowledge Academy, an MF training institute. If you are investing in FMPs, make sure you read the offer document. Some FMPs explicitly say in the offer documents that they will avoid low-rated scrips. Look out for any such portfolio credit-quality related statements in the offer document while choosing.
Stay invested in FMPs
Assuming you have already invested in an FMP belonging to a well-pedigreed fund house, do not panic. When FMPs give you an indicative yield you’re most likely to earn, they arrive at these calculations assuming that you’d stay invested till maturity. But when faced with panic redemptions, especially in times like these when buyers are few and far between, FMPs are forced to sell their scrips in a hurry and at throwaway prices. This negatively impacts your yield and you are most likely to incur a loss, especially since exit loads are levied for premature withdrawals.
For fresh investments, stick to well-pedigreed FMP and only if you are willing to stick around till maturity. Infact news reports indicate that Sebi is contemplating banning early withdrawals from FMPs. “Fixed income segment still remains attractive. But don’t get greedy and avoid going for FMPs that necessarily give higher indicative yields. Look at safety and consistent returns”, adds Nigam.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Taking off from Detroit airport
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Weak people continue to smoke
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